Article by Sanket Sinha, Managing Director & Global Head of Asset Management, Lighthouse Canton
According to Jefferies Financial Group, India's stock market value is projected to more than double. Analysts at Jeffries expect it to reach $10 trillion by 2030, driven by a history of double-digit returns and anticipated continuous economic reforms. Currently, the world's fifth-largest market at $4.5 trillion, India recently surpassed Hong Kong, buoyed by one of the fastest economic growth rates globally. This growth has attracted global investors, especially those diversifying away from China. With a 7% CAGR over the last decade increasing its GDP to $3.6 trillion, India has ascended from the eighth to the fifth-largest economy. According to a Bloomberg article, India’s GDP will reach $5 trillion by 2027, potentially outpacing Japan and Germany.
Investment Destination
As per a World Bank report, the growth in the South Asia Region (SAR) saw a slight deceleration, from 5.9% in 2022 to a lower but robust 5.7% in 2023, marking it as the fastest-growing among all Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDE) regions. This growth was primarily driven by India, which contributed to over three-quarters of the region's economic output in 2023.
The economic expansion in India slowed down to 7.2% in FY 2022/23, largely due to a decrease in the post-pandemic recovery momentum, especially in terms of private investment and consumption. Nevertheless, the country's economy demonstrated strong performance in 2023, buoyed by significant growth in public investment and a vibrant services sector. This was supported by steady domestic demand for consumer services and a rise in exports of business services. Throughout most of 2023, headline consumer price inflation stayed within the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2-6%, with policy interest rates remaining unchanged since February2023.
Driving India’s Growth
Several key elements are driving India's economic advancement: its accelerated digital transformation enhancing financial inclusivity, strategic manufacturing incentives nurturing industrial growth, and a deliberate ‘China Plus One’ strategy positioning India as an alternative global manufacturing hub.
India's progress in digitization has significantly contributed to an increase in financial inclusion across the country. Digital payment methods, like the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), have revolutionized transactions by making them more accessible and convenient for a broader segment of the population. The formalisation of credit through account aggregator networks has streamlined financial operations and management for both individuals and businesses. Improved digital infrastructure, coupled with widespread internet penetration, has also facilitated remote access to financial services. This holistic approach towards digitization and infrastructure development has been instrumental in expanding financial inclusion, allowing more individuals to participate in the formal economy and access financial services with ease.
Post-pandemic the manufacturing sector in India has witnessed a significant revival, largely due to the implementation of ‘Make in India’ and various Production Linked Incentives (PLI) schemes. These pivotal initiatives have helped foster the development of essential value chains and industrial clusters across the country, enhancing India's capacity for niche and complex manufacturing. By focusing on specific sectors through these PLI schemes, India is not only diversifying its manufacturing base but also bolstering its export portfolio. Through these concerted efforts, India is steadily carving out a significant niche in the international manufacturing landscape, contributing to the nation's economic growth and industrial advancement.
The escalating geopolitical tensions and an overreliance on China have prompted companies worldwide to seek alternative production and sourcing destinations. Backed by favorable supply-side factors and cost advantages, India is well-positioned to seize a significant share of the global manufacturing market. This shift not only diversifies the global supply chain but also reinforces India's manufacturing footprint and supply chain resilience, making it a key beneficiary in the current global economic landscape.
Investment Opportunities ahead
India's economic landscape is experiencing transformative growth, showcasing its resilience and potential as a leading economic force globally. Marked by strategic policy implementations, favourable demographics, and a strong digital infrastructure, India is emerging as an attractive investment destination. This is underscored by a significant surge in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows. According to the Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the FDI inflow during 2014-23 marked a golden era with $596 billion, doubling the inflow from 2005-14. FDI in India was $36 billion in 2013-14 and soared to an all-time high of $85 billion in 2021-22, as per the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT). These figures not only highlight India's robust economic environment but also the global confidence in its market potential.
We believe the startup ecosystem, life sciences sector, and India’s midcap segment will benefit from this growth story. As such we have developed strong internal product capabilities focusing on strategies such as venture debt, venture capital, life sciences real estate, and Indian equities.
From providing equity and debt capital to growing startups, and supporting their global business expansion plans through our LC Venture Debt and LC Nueva Fund; or providing sustainably managed research facilities and lab spaces to global life sciences multinational corporations and large domestic pharma companies through our Life Sciences Real Estate portfolio Neovantage Innovation Parks; through to identifying and investing in small & midcap companies with highly profitable businesses with our Sage One India Growth Fund.
Lighthouse Canton is committed to driving innovation and empowering growth by investing in and supporting India's burgeoning economic landscape, recognizing the immense potential in the nation's growth story.
Disclaimer: Lighthouse Canton offers financial products for professional and/or accredited investors only. This blog is intended for general awareness and does not constitute investment advice
While India’s economic growth is both intricate and captivating, there is much more to discover. Take a moment to browse through a variety of intriguing topics on the Lighthouse Canton Insights page. Dive into the following for a deeper understanding of the financial trends and innovations that are shaping our world today.
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