Consensus was pessimistic going into 2023 and for 2025, has coalesced to a goldilocks outcome. Lighthouse Canton’s 2025 Global Markets Outlook sees the year as a tale of two narratives with the transition promising heightened volatility.
The growth narrative is pervasive for now – in market opinions, forecasts and data, even if it comes with inbuilt contradictions. And then there are expectations of Trump 1.0 redux. Expecting a directional repeat of 2024, markets are more likely to see “surprises” than continued momentum. The short-term favors staying with “growth”, but is fast being challenged by inflationary concerns likely morphing into growth concerns as the year progresses. Investment opportunities will similarly transition to a defensive hue.
While the current conditions favor growth-oriented equities, a shift could occur sooner than anticipated. Signs of softening consumption, a cooling labor market, and potential surprises may prompt a re-evaluation of strategies in the months ahead.
Key takeaways from the report:
- A Year of “Surprises”? – Where is consensus positioned, possible surprises, probabilities and catalysts
- Evolution of Opportunities favoring growth equities at the cost of bonds and gold in the short-term, giving way to a defensive positioning
- 360 deg Proprietary 4-Pillars Model from Macro, to bottom up earnings and valuations to market signals driving outlook for asset classes and allocation
Download the report to explore more!
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